Bankroll growth · 90 days
vs market benchmark
Performance summary
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Today's best opportunities
Cross-sport · model edge ≥ 3pp
| Sport | Event | Selection | Model P | Odds | Edge | Kelly | Off | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACING | Flemington R7 · 2000m Win | Black Caviar II | 36.0% | $3.40 | +6.6pp | 3.4% | 15:45 | |
| RACING | Flemington R7 · 2000m Place | Black Caviar II | 62.0% | $1.65 | +3.0pp | 1.6% | 15:45 | |
| RACING | Randwick R5 · 1600m Win | Royal Ascot Run | 40.0% | $2.80 | +4.3pp | 2.6% | 14:20 | |
| RACING | Randwick R5 · 1600m Quinella | Quinella 4-7 | 18.0% | $7.20 | +4.1pp | 1.5% | 14:20 | |
| RACING | Caulfield R3 · 1200m Each-way | Lord Tennyson | 27.0% | $4.40 | +4.3pp | 1.9% | 13:05 | |
| AFL | Brisbane vs Sydney H2H | Brisbane Lions | 66.0% | $1.85 | +5.9pp | 2.1% | 19:25 | |
| AFL | Brisbane vs Sydney Line | Bris -12.5 | 55.0% | $1.92 | +3.0pp | 1.5% | 19:25 | |
| AFL | Geelong vs West Coast Total | Under 178.5 | 61.0% | $1.92 | +3.0pp | 1.4% | 16:35 | |
| AFL | Brisbane vs Sydney Margin | Bris by 13–24 | 24.0% | $4.80 | +3.2pp | 1.3% | 19:25 | |
| NRL | Penrith vs Melbourne Line | Storm +5.5 | 58.0% | $1.95 | +4.7pp | 2.2% | 19:50 | |
| NRL | Penrith vs Melbourne H2H | Penrith H2H | 62.0% | $1.72 | +3.9pp | 1.7% | 19:50 | |
| NRL | Roosters vs Broncos Half-time | Roosters HT lead | 51.0% | $2.10 | +3.4pp | 1.2% | 20:05 |
Why these are value
Plain-English breakdown of the top edges above — model %, market %, and where the gap comes from
Why these are value · plain English
Our model gives 36.0% chance to win, but the market price ($3.40) only implies 29.4%. That gap exists because the market is over-rating recent line movement while the model picks up form, venue, and matchup factors. Educational view only — outcomes are uncertain.
Our model gives 66.0% chance to win, but the market price ($1.85) only implies 54.1%. That gap exists because the market is over-rating recent line movement while the model picks up form, venue, and matchup factors. Educational view only — outcomes are uncertain.
Our model gives 58.0% chance to win, but the market price ($1.95) only implies 51.3%. That gap exists because the market is over-rating recent line movement while the model picks up form, venue, and matchup factors. Educational view only — outcomes are uncertain.
Our model gives 40.0% chance to win, but the market price ($2.80) only implies 35.7%. That gap exists because the market is over-rating recent line movement while the model picks up form, venue, and matchup factors. Educational view only — outcomes are uncertain.
Live market signals
Steam, sharp and reverse line moves across the books — decision aid only
Exposure allocation
Open stake by sport
ROI by sport · 30 days
Return on investment as a percentage
Closing line value · 30d
Cumulative beat vs close
Live momentum by sport
Edge density · last 24 ticks
Confidence heatmap
Model confidence by event type
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