Real timestamped replay
Pre-event anchoredPaper Account — what if you'd followed every pick?
Every displayed account starts with $10,000. Each row is sourced from recorded first-seen history, settled from real results, and shown from inception rather than a rolling window. Picks recorded after their match start are excluded; the badge reports the stricter subset independently anchored before kickoff.
Starting bankroll: $10,000 per modelFlat stake: 1% per pickReal timestamped history onlyPublished timestamped prices
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How to read this page
- Flat 1% stakes 1% of the current bankroll on every pick. Sharp ½-Kelly uses the same real Sharp picks, sized from timestamped model probability and capped at 2%.
- Bankroll return compares profit to the $10,000 starting bank. Staked ROI compares profit to every dollar turned over.
- Avg CLV is the headline sharpness metric — positive means we beat the closing line on average. Stabilises in ~50 picks; ROI takes 500+.
- Max DD is the worst peak-to-trough drop. Anything under 15% is healthy for a flat-staked book. Sharpe / Sortino are risk-adjusted return — 1.0+ is good, 2.0+ is excellent (Sortino only penalises downside vol).
- Pending picks (kickoff still ahead) appear in the open-bets list and don't move the bankroll yet.
- Integrity audit excludes rows where the published timestamp is not strictly before the event start.
Research output only — not bet advice. See responsible gambling.