Bankroll
$12,480
+60.0% all-time
Exposure
11.5%
Cap 18%
Hit rate
42%
Avg odds $2.62
Profit factor
1.58
Drawdown −8.4%
Bankroll trajectory
90-day equity curve vs benchmark
Exposure allocation
Open stake by sport
Horse Racing$1,62013%
AFL$8407%
NRL$4103%
Cash$9,61077%
Open positions
7 positions · $1,430 at risk
| Sport | Event | Selection | Stake | Odds | Model | EV | Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACING | Flemington R7 Win | Black Caviar II | $320 | $3.20 | 36% | +$49 | 15:45 |
| RACING | Randwick R5 Win · LIVE | Royal Ascot Run | $260 | $2.80 | 40% | +$31 | 14:20 |
| AFL | BRI vs SYD H2H | Brisbane | $240 | $1.85 | 66% | +$53 | 19:25 |
| AFL | GEE vs WCE Total · LIVE | Under 178.5 | $180 | $1.92 | 61% | +$31 | 16:35 |
| NRL | PEN vs MEL Line | Penrith −4.5 | $180 | $1.95 | 57% | +$20 | 19:50 |
| NRL | BRI vs SYD H2H · LIVE | Broncos H2H | $110 | $1.55 | 71% | +$11 | 19:35 |
| RACING | Eagle Farm R3 Win | Brisbane Bullet | $140 | $2.90 | 32% | −$10 | 13:10 |
Risk profile
Risk-adjusted performance
Sharpe
1.84
Sortino
2.31
Profit factor
1.58
Drawdown
−8.4%
Hit rate
42%
Avg odds
$2.62
Exposure vs cap11.5% / 18%
Your portfolio sits comfortably inside your 18% exposure cap. Sharpe of 1.84 ranks in the institutional band.
Settlement ledger
Last 14 settled bets
| Date | Sport | Market | Stake | Odds | Result | P/L | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | RACING | Line | $131 | $3.46 | LOSS | −$131 | -0.37 |
| 31/12 | NRL | Place | $321 | $2.38 | LOSS | −$321 | -0.87 |
| 30/12 | RACING | Line | $224 | $2.61 | WIN | +$361 | +2.14 |
| 29/12 | NRL | H2H | $266 | $5.46 | WIN | +$1186 | +2.00 |
| 28/12 | NRL | Total | $234 | $4.28 | WIN | +$768 | +0.05 |
| 27/12 | NRL | Win | $234 | $4.39 | WIN | +$793 | +1.62 |
| 26/12 | AFL | Place | $374 | $3.13 | LOSS | −$374 | +0.04 |
| 25/12 | NRL | H2H | $120 | $1.83 | WIN | +$100 | +0.65 |
| 24/12 | RACING | Total | $218 | $1.83 | LOSS | −$218 | +0.77 |
| 23/12 | RACING | Line | $136 | $4.46 | WIN | +$471 | +1.75 |
| 22/12 | NRL | Place | $299 | $3.06 | WIN | +$616 | +0.91 |
| 21/12 | RACING | H2H | $175 | $2.95 | LOSS | −$175 | -0.41 |
| 20/12 | NRL | Place | $191 | $5.47 | WIN | +$854 | -0.88 |
| 19/12 | NRL | H2H | $132 | $3.95 | WIN | +$389 | +0.84 |
Live alerts
Steam, drift, model and lineup signals
14:02STEAM
Black Caviar II firmed $3.60 → $3.20 (+11% money)
13:48EDGE
Brisbane H2H edge widened to +5.9pp
13:31MODEL
Pace-bias model recalibrated for Randwick (Soft 6)
13:15DRIFT
Penrith line drifted −4.5 → −3.5
12:50INJURY
Sydney: T. Lynch ruled out (hamstring)
Closing line value · 30d
Cumulative beat vs close
Final CLV+6.24 units
ROI by sport · 30d
Where your edge lives
RACING
$4,860
+$612
AFL
$2,410
+$188
NRL
$2,680
−$94
Form · last 20 settlements
Current streak 4 wins · Longest 9W / 5L
You're on a 4-bet win streak. Discipline beats variance — the ledger above shows CLV is the truer signal.
Plan & limits
Pro tier · institutional features
Pro plan · $149/mo
Renews 12 May 2026
- Pre-game + live models
- Bayesian + Monte Carlo
- Steam / drift alerts
- Closing line value
- Auto Kelly (institutional)
- API accesssoon
Drawdown curve
Peak-to-trough %, 90 days
Daily P/L heatmap
Last 90 days · day-of-week rhythm
w1
w3
w5
w7
w9
w11
w13
M
T
W
T
F
S
S
LossWin
Pro Kelly desk
Live staking range — pulls into the active model
Odds format
Model probability54.0%
%
Market odds$1.95
$
Kelly fraction · 50%0.50× full
%
Edge +2.7pp · Full Kelly 5.58% of bank. Pros typically run quarter-to-half Kelly to dampen variance.
Conservative Stake rangeAggressive
0.25× $1740.5× $3481.0× $696
Quarter
$174
0.25× Kelly
Half
$348
0.5× Kelly
Custom
$348
50% Kelly
Full
$696
1× Kelly · risky
EV / bet
+$18.45
@ recommended
Bankroll %
2.79%
of $12,480
Risk of ruin
3.98%
approx, finite
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