Win probability · live
Adjust scenario to see real-time market shift
Margin distribution
Monte Carlo · 10k iterations
Team strength radar
5 dimensions, normalised
Quarter scoring · projection
Average pts per quarter
Line movement · H2H
Implied home win % over last 24 ticks
Squad availability & impact
Injuries, suspensions, late changes
Scoring by quarter
Average pts · projection
Momentum swing
Live game-script delta
Game-script model
Probability of script states
Pressure / contest indicator
Pressure acts per 100 disposals
Inside-50 efficiency
Score per i50
Turnover impact
Pts off turnovers · last 4
Venue performance
Win % at venue · last 5y
Travel recovery
−Pts vs rested
5h flight · 4-day turnaround
Injury impact
Replacement vs starter
N. Daicos out · midfield −9% clearance
Weather adjustment
Total points delta
Wind 28 km/h · light rain expected
Fav vs underdog
Cover rate · 30d
Dogs covering line
Margin distribution curve
Monte Carlo · 10k runs
Educational analytics only. AFL projections combine team form, venue history, weather and squad availability. Gambling carries risk — bet responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem, call 1800 858 858 (Gambling Help AU).
AFL trading desk
Specialist trading desk · 7 modules
Market
H2H · Brisbane Lions
Expected value
Model vs market · 1σ band
Model
Prediction · CI · drift
Risk
Volatility · exposure · suggested range
Form
Last 5 · weighted, opponent-adjusted
Market movement
Open vs current · sharp money
Value list
Top edges by model · sorted by EV
| Selection | Model | Odds | Edge | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions H2H vs Sydney @ Gabba | 66.0% | $1.85 | +11.9pp | |
Geelong −24.5 vs West Coast | 58.0% | $1.92 | +5.9pp | |
Under 178.5 total GEE vs WCE | 61.0% | $1.92 | +8.9pp | |
Collingwood −12.5 vs Richmond | 54.0% | $1.95 | +2.7pp | |
Port Adelaide H2H vs Fremantle | 68.0% | $1.62 | +6.3pp | |
Sydney +24.5 vs Brisbane | 55.0% | $1.95 | +3.7pp |