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AFL

Premiership · weekly slate · next listed market

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AFL live oddsfetching feed…
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Current slate & pricing calculator

Tap any fixture to load it into the hero above, then price it with the sport-tuned calculator.

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Public model board & ladder

Every major public AFL model in one place, in club colours. Tap a game to open the individual model numbers.

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Models & markets for AFL

What people actually bet on this code, which Edgewise engines are pointed at it, and how to start following them.

Australian rules control centre

How people bet AFL

Ladder position, venue effects and the published tips of every major public AFL model, priced against the live market in one screen.

Head to head
The core market — de-vigged fair price on every game.
Line (handicap)
Margin model converts predicted margin into a line edge.
Total points
Over/under on combined score, venue and weather adjusted.
Winning margin bands
Margin distribution turned into band probabilities.
Anytime / first goalkicker
Popular AU multi leg — priced from role and shot share.
Quarter & half markets
In-play entries around quarter breaks.
Ladder + percentage context30+ public AFL models comparedModel disagreement flagVenue & travel aware

Engines pointed at this sport

  • Consensus fair price live

    De-vigs every book's h2h into one market-true probability.

  • Public-model board live

    Squiggle, Matter of Stats, The Arc and peers — where they disagree is where value hides.

  • Arbitrage · AFL live

    Cross-book price sweep on this code only — locks both sides when the books disagree.

  • Line shopping live

    Best available price across 29 licensed books, refreshed every sweep.

  • Middle scanner live

    Finds handicap/total gaps where both bets can win.

  • CLV tracker live

    Scores every pick against closing price.

How to follow these
  1. Open the command centre and choose Follow models.
  2. Pick the engines above you want mirrored — each gets its own paper bankroll.
  3. Every qualifying bet on this sport is logged for you, timestamped, with the stake already rounded.
See plans
In development
  • Margin-band pricerTurns the margin distribution into band and line prices.
  • Goalkicker modelShot-share and role model for first/anytime goal markets.

In-play & analytics

Live tiles and deeper form, margin and momentum analytics for the selected fixture.

AFL · in-play recalculations

auto-refresh 2m ·

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AFL · margin & total models

AFL is a high-scoring, low-variance code. We model team scoring rates per minute, account for ground & weather, then convert margin distributions into win/line/total prices.

Expected margin
μ = (Att_H × Def_A − Att_A × Def_H) × pace × ground_adj
Pace from rolling 6-game possession rate.
Win probability
P(H win) = Φ((μ − 0.5) / σ), σ ≈ 28 pts
Normal CDF on simulated margin.
Total points
E[Total] = (Att_H + Att_A) × pace × weather_adj
Rain trims totals by ~6 pts.
AFL tools:Margin distributionLine shoppingKelly stakeWeather adjustment
EdgewiseEdgewiseAustralian sports intelligence
Important · educational analytics only · available Australia-wide

Edgewise provides quantitative sports analytics for research and education to users across all Australian states and territories. Nothing on this platform is financial, investment, legal, tax or betting advice and no profits, returns or outcomes are guaranteed. Models are statistical estimates and may be wrong. Edgewise is not a bookmaker, does not accept wagers, does not offer or promote inducements, and is not a regulated wagering service provider under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth).

Chances are you're about to lose. Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. You must be 18 or older to use this service anywhere in Australia. Bet only with operators licensed in an Australian state or territory and only within your means. Free, confidential 24/7 support: Gambling Help Online — 1800 858 858 · gamblinghelponline.org.au. National self-exclusion register: betstop.gov.au. Personal information is handled in accordance with the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) and the Australian Privacy Principles.

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