AFL desk
Ladder position, venue effects and available public-model inputs, compared with the current market only when a verified source response exists.
Is the line wrong after ground, weather and team news?
Distribution, venue and scoring profile
Weather, pace and expected scoring
Availability and role changes
Edge, correlation and bankroll risk
AFL markets, inputs and risk
The market groups, specialist inputs and exposure checks that are specific to this code.
Market groups on this desk
Workflow: Round → match → market. A group is only operational when its source responds.
Head to headTap to explainno price source
The reference market — everything else is priced from the same margin view.
- Home
- Away
Needs: Bookmaker price sweep. Nothing in this group is selectable until that source returns a current quote.
LineTap to explainno price source
Handicap pricing from the margin distribution, not from the winner alone.
- Line
- Alternate lines
Needs: Bookmaker price sweep. Nothing in this group is selectable until that source returns a current quote.
TotalsTap to explainno price source
Scoring is weather and ground sensitive in this code.
- Match total points
- Team total points
Needs: Bookmaker price sweep. Nothing in this group is selectable until that source returns a current quote.
Winning marginTap to explainno price source
Bands derived from the same distribution as the line.
- Margin bands
- Exact margin
- Winning margin group
Needs: Bookmaker price sweep. Nothing in this group is selectable until that source returns a current quote.
Player marketsTap to explainno price source
Role and expected involvement, not name recognition.
- Player disposals
- Player goals
- Anytime goalkicker
- First goalkicker
Needs: Bookmaker price sweep. Nothing in this group is selectable until that source returns a current quote.
AFL specialist inputs
These are the inputs that decide prices in this code. Edgewise shows a value only when a connected source supplies it.
Public model boardTap to explain
Independent AFL model outputs give a second opinion on the margin. Source: Public AFL model board.
Team changesTap to explain
Late outs change structure, not just quality.
No connected source supplies this today. Judge it yourself before committing a stake.VenueTap to explain
Ground size and interstate venues shift scoring and margin.
No connected source supplies this today. Judge it yourself before committing a stake.WeatherTap to explain
Rain trims totals and compresses margins.
No connected source supplies this today. Judge it yourself before committing a stake.Rest & travelTap to explain
Six-day breaks and interstate travel matter over a round.
No connected source supplies this today. Judge it yourself before committing a stake.
AFL risk dimensions
Exposure in this code is not just total stake. These are the concentrations to check before sizing.
Team exposureTap to explain
Repeated exposure to one club across markets and weeks.
Match exposureTap to explain
Head-to-head, line and total on one game are correlated.
Round exposureTap to explain
Total capital committed across the round.
Same-game correlationTap to explain
Player goals and team result move together.
LineTap to explain
DisposalsTap to explain
PercentageTap to explain
Late outTap to explain
Current slate & pricing calculator
Tap any fixture to load it into the hero above, then price it with the sport-tuned calculator.
Current slate · tap to load
Public model board & ladder
Every major public AFL model in one place, in club colours. Tap a game to open the individual model numbers.
Models & markets for AFL
What people actually bet on this code, which Edgewise engines are pointed at it, and how to start following them.
Markets on the AFL desk
Ladder position, venue effects and available public-model inputs, compared with the current market only when a verified source response exists.
Head to headTap to explain
Line (handicap)Tap to explain
Total pointsTap to explain
Winning margin bandsTap to explain
Anytime / first goalkickerTap to explain
Quarter & half marketsTap to explain
Configured analysis modules
Configured means the module is available in this desk. Current market output still depends on the source and freshness panel above.
Consensus fair priceTap to explainconfigured
De-vigs available head-to-head quotes into a consensus estimate when current sources respond.
Public-model boardTap to explainconfigured
Configured public-model inputs can be compared where authorised data is available; disagreement is a research signal, not proof of value.
Arbitrage · AFLTap to explainconfigured
Cross-source price comparison for this code. Apparent arbitrage remains subject to movement, limits, voids and execution.
Line shoppingTap to explainconfigured
Best available price across the configured licensed sources, with freshness checked on every sweep.
Middle scannerTap to explainconfigured
Screens handicap and total gaps where both positions may win; execution and settlement rules must be checked.
CLV trackerTap to explainconfigured
Compares recorded selections with an available closing-price observation when one is captured.
- Margin-band pricer — Turns the margin distribution into band and line prices.
- Goalkicker model — Shot-share and role model for first/anytime goal markets.
Evidence status
The richer performance, movement and in-play analysis panels stay unavailable until they can be backed by their own timestamped source data.
No derived performance claims yet
Edgewise can show a de-vigged consensus only when the connected odds source returns it. Line movement, team form, venue, weather, player markets and model-derived edges remain hidden until their inputs and timestamps are captured for this sport.
AFL · margin & total models
AFL is a high-scoring, low-variance code. We model team scoring rates per minute, account for ground & weather, then convert margin distributions into win/line/total prices.