Win probability · live
Adjust scenario to see real-time market shift
Territory dominance
Per-quarter possession & field position
Margin distribution
Monte Carlo · 10k iterations
Player workload · last 4 weeks
Avg minutes / fatigue index
Live edge tracker
Where the model beats market
Momentum & line move
Implied PEN win % over last 24 ticks
Territory dominance
% of metres in opposition half
Run metres vs post-contact
Average per carry
Play-the-ball speed
PTB 0–4s · win rate
Defensive line speed
Marker-to-tackle pressure
Fatigue tracker
Composite work index
Minutes load
Big-mins forwards
Interchange impact
Bench points / 80 min
Home bench out-points opposition
Lineup strength
Depth score · top 17
Goal kicking
Conv % · L5 weeks
Set completion trend
Completion % last 6 games
Discipline risk
Penalties + sin-bins / game
Above league average — line value risk
Late-game collapse risk
Last 10 min concession rate
Watch live for in-play hedging windows
Educational analytics only. NRL analytics include territory, fatigue, lineup depth and discipline risk. Gambling carries risk — bet responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem, call 1800 858 858 (Gambling Help AU).
NRL trading desk
Specialist trading desk · 7 modules
Market
Line · Penrith −4.5
Expected value
Model vs market · 1σ band
Model
Prediction · CI · drift
Risk
Volatility · exposure · suggested range
Form
Last 5 · weighted, opponent-adjusted
Market movement
Open vs current · sharp money
Value list
Top edges by model · sorted by EV
| Selection | Model | Odds | Edge | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Penrith −4.5 vs Melbourne | 57.0% | $1.95 | +5.7pp | |
Brisbane H2H vs Roosters | 71.0% | $1.55 | +6.5pp | |
Storm +5.5 vs Penrith | 58.0% | $1.95 | +6.7pp | |
Under 39.5 total PEN vs MEL | 55.0% | $1.92 | +2.9pp | |
Eels H2H vs Sharks | 50.0% | $2.10 | +2.4pp | |
Cowboys −2.5 vs Bulldogs | 59.0% | $1.95 | +7.7pp |