Top pick
34%%
Sovereign Strike
UpcomingFlemington · Race 7
2000m Turf
6 runners · Going Good · Off 15:45 AEDT
Prize pool$750,000
Field6
Top odds$2.80
SurfaceTurf
Racing trading desk · Flemington R7
RACING specialist trading desk · sport-tuned modules
Market
Win · Sovereign Strike
Flemington R7 · 2000m Turf
Best price
$2.80
Implied
35.7%
Open
$3.02
Δ price
-7.3%
Move
FIRM
Expected value
Model vs market · 1σ band
Edge
-1.71pp28%model 34.0%mkt 35.7%40%
EV / $100
−$4.80
Edge score
0.00
Confidence
82%
Model
Prediction · CI · drift
Predicted P
34.0%
95% CI 21% – 47%
σ
6.4%
Drift
-1.7%
Conf
82%
Risk
Volatility · exposure · suggested range
Volatility
Medium
Exposure
2.6%
Min stake
$0
Max stake
$0
Form
Last 5 · weighted, opponent-adjusted
Homew 64
1WW2W
Trend
64
Opp adj
0
Market movement
Open vs current · sharp money
Implied Δ
-7.22pp
Open
28.4%
Last
21.1%
Signal
STEAM
Value list
Top edges by model · sorted by EV
| Selection | Model | Odds | Edge | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
#2 Sovereign Strike Win · model 34.0% · $2.80 | 34.0% | $2.80 | -1.7pp | |
#1 Southern Cross Win · model 28.0% · $3.40 | 28.0% | $3.40 | -1.4pp | |
#3 Capital Reign Win · model 18.0% · $5.50 | 18.0% | $5.50 | -0.2pp | |
#4 Lightning Bay Win · model 9.0% · $11.00 | 9.0% | $11.00 | -0.1pp | |
#5 Outback Storm Win · model 6.0% · $17.00 | 6.0% | $17.00 | +0.1pp |
Draw & track bias
Barrier · going · sectional speed
Barrier bias
Wide OK
Going
Good 4
Sectional
34.69s
RACING-specific signal · updated each refresh
Field & form
Tap a runner to view detail · model probabilities
| # | Runner | Rating | Trend | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Southern Cross C. Waller · BAR 4 · 58.5kg | 92 | 28.0% | $3.40 | |
2 | Sovereign Strike P. Moody · BAR 7 · 57kg | 95 | 34.0% | $2.80 | |
3 | Capital Reign C. Waller · BAR 2 · 56.5kg | 88 | 18.0% | $5.50 | |
4 | Lightning Bay G. Waterhouse · BAR 9 · 55kg | 82 | 9.0% | $11.00 | |
5 | Outback Storm J. Cummings · BAR 11 · 54.5kg | 76 | 6.0% | $17.00 | |
6 | Gold Coast Flyer T. Snowden · BAR 1 · 54kg | 71 | 5.0% | $20.00 |
Race scenario
Drag to recompute the field
Pace bias · Even50
Front-runnersBack-markers
Track bias · Neutral50
RailOutside
Model confidence · 70%
%
Kelly staking
Selection · Southern Cross
Edge-1.41pp
−15ppFair+15pp
Model P
28.00%
Implied P
29.41%
Market odds · $3.40
$
Kelly fraction · 50%
Bankroll AUD
Full Kelly0.00%
Adjusted0.00%
Stake$0.00
Expected P/L+$0.00
Pace map · projected positions
Lane proximity to rail through the run
Top value runners
Model probability vs market
5
Outback Storm
$17.00 · model 6.0%
+0.1pp
6
Gold Coast Flyer
$20.00 · model 5.0%
+0.0pp
4
Lightning Bay
$11.00 · model 9.0%
-0.1pp
Win probability vs implied
Model edge per runner
Market movement
Last 6 ticks · drift / firm
#1Southern Cross$3.40▼ 2.0
#2Sovereign Strike$2.80▼ 7.2
#3Capital Reign$5.50▼ 0.4
#4Lightning Bay$11.00▲ 2.4
#5Outback Storm$17.00▼ 2.8