Top pick
34%%
Black Caviar II
UpcomingFlemington · Race 7
2000m Turf
6 runners · Going Good · Off 15:45 AEDT
Prize pool$750,000
Field6
Top odds$2.80
SurfaceTurf
Field & form
Tap a runner to view detail · model probabilities
| # | Runner | Rating | Trend | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Southern Cross C. Waller · BAR 4 · 58.5kg | 92 | 28.0% | $3.40 | |
2 | Black Caviar II P. Moody · BAR 7 · 57kg | 95 | 34.0% | $2.80 | |
3 | Winx Reborn C. Waller · BAR 2 · 56.5kg | 88 | 18.0% | $5.50 | |
4 | Lightning Bay G. Waterhouse · BAR 9 · 55kg | 82 | 9.0% | $11.00 | |
5 | Outback Storm J. Cummings · BAR 11 · 54.5kg | 76 | 6.0% | $17.00 | |
6 | Gold Coast Flyer T. Snowden · BAR 1 · 54kg | 71 | 5.0% | $20.00 |
Pace map · projected positions
Lane proximity to rail through the run
Top value runners
Model probability vs market
5
Outback Storm
$17.00 · model 6.0%
+0.1pp
6
Gold Coast Flyer
$20.00 · model 5.0%
+0.0pp
4
Lightning Bay
$11.00 · model 9.0%
-0.1pp
Win probability vs implied
Model edge per runner
Market movement
Last 6 ticks · drift / firm
#1Southern Cross$3.40▼ 2.0
#2Black Caviar II$2.80▼ 7.2
#3Winx Reborn$5.50▼ 0.4
#4Lightning Bay$11.00▲ 2.4
#5Outback Storm$17.00▼ 2.8
Racing trading desk
Specialist trading desk · 7 modules
Market
Win · Black Caviar II
Flemington R7 · 2000m Turf
Best price
$3.20
Implied
31.3%
Open
$3.60
Δ price
-11.1%
Move
FIRM
Expected value
Model vs market · 1σ band
Edge
+4.75pp30%model 36.0%mkt 31.3%42%
EV / $100
+$15.20
Edge score
4.24
Confidence
82%
Model
Prediction · CI · drift
Predicted P
36.0%
95% CI 23% – 49%
σ
6.4%
Drift
+4.0%
Conf
82%
Risk
Volatility · exposure · suggested range
Volatility
Medium
Exposure
2.6%
Min stake
$148
Max stake
$593
Form
Last 5 · weighted, opponent-adjusted
Homew 64
1WW2W
Trend
64
Opp adj
0
Market movement
Open vs current · sharp money
Implied Δ
-0.71pp
Open
29.7%
Last
29.0%
Signal
STEAM
Value list
Top edges by model · sorted by EV
| Selection | Model | Odds | Edge | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Black Caviar II Flemington R7 · Win | 36.0% | $3.20 | +4.7pp | |
Royal Ascot Run Randwick R5 · Win | 40.0% | $2.80 | +4.3pp | |
Brisbane Bullet Eagle Farm R3 · Win | 32.0% | $2.90 | -2.5pp | |
Sydney Mist Randwick R5 · Place | 62.0% | $1.70 | +3.2pp | |
Tropical Thunder Eagle Farm R3 · Win | 28.0% | $3.50 | -0.6pp | |
Harbour Lights Randwick R5 · Place | 45.0% | $2.10 | -2.6pp |