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Poisson Calculator

Use Poisson to model the probability of exact scorelines, over/under thresholds and BTTS from team scoring rates (lambdas).

Live calculator
Poisson Calculator
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
46.9%
BTTS
55.8%
Home scores 1+
79.8%
λ = expected goals. Football: 1.2–1.8 per side is typical.

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Important · educational analytics only · available Australia-wide

Edgewise provides quantitative sports analytics for research and education to users across all Australian states and territories. Nothing on this platform is financial, investment, legal, tax or betting advice and no profits, returns or outcomes are guaranteed. Models are statistical estimates and may be wrong. Edgewise is not a bookmaker, does not accept wagers, does not offer or promote inducements, and is not a regulated wagering service provider under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth).

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