Closing Line Value tracker
Every published model edge is logged at the price taken, then re-settled against the closing line. Positive average CLV is the single strongest leading indicator of analytical skill — it stabilises in ~50 records, while ROI takes 500+. Research output only — not bet advice.
Long-term proxy for skill — beating the close consistently > ROI streaks.
| Sport | Event | Selection | Taken | Close | CLV | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACING | Flemington R7 | Sovereign Strike | $3.40 | $3.05 | +11.5% | W |
| AFL | Bris vs Syd | Bris H2H | $1.85 | $1.78 | +3.9% | W |
| NRL | Pen vs Mel | Storm +5.5 | $1.95 | $1.90 | +2.6% | P |
| RACING | Randwick R5 | Royal Ascot Run | $2.80 | $2.95 | -5.1% | L |
| AFL | Geel vs WC | Under 178.5 | $1.92 | $1.85 | +3.8% | W |
| RACING | Caulfield R3 | Coastal Sovereign | $5.20 | $4.40 | +18.2% | W |
| NRL | Roo vs Bro | Roosters -3.5 | $1.95 | $2.05 | -4.9% | L |
Cross-check: sharp subset vs every fixture
The headline number above is from auto_edge_2pp — only picks with ≥2 percentage-point model edge. Below is the honest cross-check: auto_bestprice covers every published fixture, including the ones a sharp wouldn't bet. If both are positive, the system is genuinely beating the close — not just cherry-picking.
Closing line source: we use the Betfair (exchange) price within 10 minutes of jump as the sharp anchor wherever it's available (Pinnacle doesn't take AU customers). If no Betfair snapshot exists for a fixture, we fall back to the best price across all books in the final 60-min window. Recreational books are never used as the close on their own.
Want to see this in dollars?
The Paper Account page runs live $10,000 simulated bankrolls across model picks, arbitrage, middles and signal tools. Updates every minute.
How to read it
Taken is the decimal price recorded at publication time. Close is the price at jump / kickoff. CLV% is the percentage edge over close — a positive number means we beat the market.
Why CLV, not ROI
Results are noisy. A 60% CLV winner can lose ten in a row. A 0% CLV "winner" got lucky and will revert. Track the metric that can't lie to you. See the margins case study for the maths.